Early radiological worsening of SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia predicts the need for ventilatory support.

OBJECTIVES: Identifying early markers of poor prognosis of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is mandatory. Our purpose is to analyze by chest radiography if rapid worsening of COVID-19 pneumonia in the initial days has predictive value for ventilatory support (VS) need. METHODS: Ambispective observational ethically approved study in COVID-19 pneumonia inpatients, validated in a second outpatient sample. Brixia score (BS) was applied to the first and second chest radiography required for suspected COVID-19 pneumonia to determine the predictive capacity of BS worsening for VS need. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was previously analyzed among three radiologists. Sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios, AUC, and odds ratio were calculated using ROC curves and binary logistic regression analysis. A value of p < .05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: A total of 120 inpatients (55 ± 14 years, 68 men) and 112 outpatients (56 ± 13 years, 61 men) were recruited. The average ICC of the BS was between 0.812 (95% confidence interval 0.745-0.878) and 0.906 (95% confidence interval 0.844-0.940). According to the multivariate analysis, a BS worsening per day > 1.3 points within 10 days of the onset of symptoms doubles the risk for requiring VS in inpatients and 5 times in outpatients (p < .001). The findings from the second chest radiography were always better predictors of VS requirement than those from the first one. CONCLUSION: The early radiological worsening of SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia after symptoms onset is a determining factor of the final prognosis. In elderly patients with some comorbidity and pneumonia, a 48-72-h follow-up radiograph is recommended. KEY POINTS: • An early worsening on chest X-ray in patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia is highly predictive of the need for ventilatory support. • This radiological worsening rate can be easily assessed by comparing the first and the second chest X-ray. • In elderly patients with some comorbidity and SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia, close early radiological follow-up is recommended.

Prognostic value of thrombin generation parameters in hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

SARS-CoV-2 infection increases the risk of thrombosis by different mechanisms not fully characterized. Although still debated, an increase in D-dimer has been proposed as a first-line hemostasis test associated with thromboembolic risk and unfavorable prognosis. We aim to systematically and comprehensively evaluate the association between thrombin generation parameters and the inflammatory and hypercoagulable state, as well as their prognostic value in COVID-19 patients. A total of 127 hospitalized patients with confirmed COVID-19, 24 hospitalized patients with SARS-CoV-2-negative pneumonia and 12 healthy subjects were included. Clinical characteristics, thrombin generation triggered by tissue factor with and without soluble thrombomodulin, and also by silica, as well as other biochemical parameters were assessed. Despite the frequent use of heparin, COVID-19 patients had similar thrombin generation to healthy controls. In COVID-19 patients, the thrombin generation lag-time positively correlated with markers of cell lysis (LDH), inflammation (CRP, IL-6) and coagulation (D-dimer), while the endogenous thrombin potential (ETP) inversely correlated with D-dimer and LDH, and positively correlated with fibrinogen levels. Patients with more prolonged lag-time and decreased ETP had higher peak ISTH-DIC scores, and had more severe disease (vascular events and death). The ROC curve and Kaplan Meier estimate indicated that the D-dimer/ETP ratio was associated with in-hospital mortality (HR 2.5; p = 0.006), and with the occurrence of major adverse events (composite end-point of vascular events and death) (HR 2.38; p = 0.004). The thrombin generation ETP and lag-time variables correlate with thromboinflammatory markers, and the D-dimer/ETP ratio can predict major adverse events in COVID-19.